The Six Pack: Florida vs. Tennessee, Texas A&M vs. Arkansas are the best Week 4 college football picks

0
16

Last week was the week that Six Pack waited for. After a rough start to the season, the Six Pack went 5-1 last week, including its upset pick win against Vanderbilt to put up 4.05 units and get us into the season on a positive note.

Now, all we have to do is stay there. Betting in the early part of the season is difficult, but trusting the process pays off.

Even better than last week’s performance is that I feel more confident about this week’s exams — I felt better last week. There was a lot of value to be seen, and it still is as we head into the weekend. The market still hasn’t fully caught up with some teams and the Week 1 overreactions are still definitely being corrected. So let’s get to it. All odds by Caesars Sportsbook.

Games of the week

Special game | Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators

No. 20 Florida at No. 11 Tennessee: Remember when Florida beat Utah at home to open the season? People have said that Richardson is a combination of Cam Newton and Vince Young, which would be an incredible combination — if true — but we haven’t heard many of those comparisons over the past two weeks. Let the first week of the new season be a lesson to us all not to take anything we see too seriously. Strange things happen. Richardson is a talented player, but he is young, inexperienced and has a lot of learning to do.

As for this game, Florida has dominated the rivalry for some time (it has won five straight and 25 of 32 meetings since the dawn of the Steve Spurrier era in Gainesville) and it won’t be Saturday. . While I was hesitant to name Tennessee the second best team in the SEC East during the offseason because of Tennessee’s defense, it appears to be the second best. While I’m not ready to say the team’s defensive issues have been fixed, they’ve definitely improved. With an offense this potent, that might be enough.

Florida’s defense is solid, though, and needs to cut back on the blocks a bit — to help keep this one together anyway. Tennessee 35, Florida 24 | Below 62.5

Special game | Texas A&M Aggies vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 23 Texas A&M: Yeah, I wouldn’t bet on Aziz any time soon. Crime is … well … hurtful. As I wrote last week When we took the under (and cashed in easily) on Texas A&M’s game against Miami, many would note that if it weren’t for Iowa’s ridiculously bad offense, A&M wouldn’t have been much better. The Aggies rank 105th nationally in points per drive (1.72), 104th in winning percentage (37.3%) and 85th in EPA/play (-0.03). Coach Jimbo Fisher doesn’t know how to coordinate an offense. His offense is too complex for college, where players are only allowed so much time to “study.” There’s a reason many college offenses are simplified, but Fisher refuses to simplify his offense or cede the power to someone else. You see the result.

Know who commits a simple crime? Arkansas. Now, Arkansas’ pass defense is questionable, but that’s partly by design (it has a lot of curves, but don’t break). I don’t care against Texas A&M, which can’t pass efficiently against anyone. I take the points, but if you want to take Arkansas directly, I won’t talk to you. Arkansas 24, Texas A&M 23 | Arkansas +2

Lock of the week

Special game | Michigan Wolverines vs. Maryland Terrapins

Maryland at No. 4 Michigan: There’s an easy way to approach the race Maryland, which is off to a 3-0 start and has outscored opponents 121-58. When Maryland plays a team it needs to beat, it beats that team often. It will stop them if given the chance. However, when Maryland plays a better team, it gets destroyed. The Terps went 0-5 and were outscored 247-84 in five games against Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State and Michigan last season. Michigan won 59-18.

In fact, Michigan has been outscored 261-59 in the last six meetings. That’s an average of 33.7 points per game. While the Wolverines haven’t been tested yet, I don’t think Maryland will provide much of a test. Quarterback Daulia Tagovailova still takes more chances with the ball, and he gets away with them against average defenses. Michigan’s defense is not average. That would put pressure on him, he’d panic, and he’d throw it to the Wolverines. I have seen many times that this week will be different. Michigan 41, Maryland 13 | Michigan -16.5

Under the week

Iowa at Rutgers: It’s awkward, isn’t it? We have a total of 34.5, and my initial reaction is that it’s too high. Then I thought about it for a while and it seemed like more, so we’re taking down a game that has more balls than points. While the overall numbers weren’t terrible for the Rutgers offense, most of the damage was done in a 66-7 win over Wagner. In two games against FBS opponents, it scored 38 points, averaging 1.29 points per drive (107th) and a 34.6% success rate (107th). For reference, the terrible, not-so-bad, not-so-good Iowa offense ranks one spot above it in both categories against FBS teams.

On the other hand, security is good. Iowa’s defense is one of the best in the nation and will have no problem against an anemic Rutgers offense. Rutgers ranks the defense in the top 25 nationally in the stats I care about the most (#TrustTheProcess), so it’s hard to believe the Iowa offense will do itself. As always with Iowa, we could fall prey to a special teams miscue or a bunch of Rutgers turnovers that lead to short field goals, but it didn’t matter. Iowa 20, Rutgers 10 | 34.5 under

Jayhawks of the week

Special game | Kansas Jayhawks vs. Duke Blue Devils

Duke at Kansas: While I haven’t made them my boot of the week, I haven’t given up on my Jayhawks. They’re not a lock as I have high hopes for Michigan against Maryland, but the market still undervalues ​​the Jayhawks. It’s certainly been corrected following road wins against West Virginia and Houston, but that’s overestimating Duke a little here.

Like Kansas, Duke is off to an impressive 3-0 start. The main difference is that Kansas has had tough road wins. In contrast, Duke has played two of the nation’s worst FBS teams (Temple and Northwestern) and an FCS opponent in North Carolina A&T. The Blue Devils defense has never seen a Kansas offense like this. I don’t think the Blue Devils have the talent to slow down a truly elite Kansas offense. Let’s ride this wave of jayhawks until we hit the rocky shore. Kansas 37, Duke 27 | Kansas -7.5

Sadness of the week

Special game | California Golden Bears vs. Arizona Wildcats

Arizona at Cal: I have been three weeks in a row in Kansas during this passage. Last week I took Vanderbilt on the money line against Northern Illinois. I felt the market was very low on both programs going into the season. You know the Kansas bets, but I’m taking Vanderbilt’s season-long win total over 2.5 and it’s already cashed in. I took Arizona 2.5 over wins a year ago because Arizona’s record was much better than it was last season. Well, the Wildcats head into Berkeley with a 2-1 record this week, as do Kansas and Vanderbilt.

There’s a good chance they’ll get the job done — better chance than the price here, anyway. I find this game a bit more of a coin flip (slightly leaning towards Cal). The Bears struggle to finish drives, and as a result, they struggle to score points. Arizona’s offense isn’t efficient and has been disorganized, but its overall success rate points to improved performances to come. It’s also very strong in the red zone, which could prove to be the difference in what should be a close game. Arizona 24, Cal 20 | Arizona (+135)

Games of the week

1-1

2-5

-3.5

Lock of the week

1-0

2-2

-0.2

Overall

5-1

12-10

1.73

Which college football picks can you confidently make in Week 4 and which top 25 favorites will be tough? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has netted more than $3,300 in profits over the past six-plus seasons — find out.

require.config({"baseUrl":"https://sportsfly.cbsistatic.com/fly-0324/bundles/sportsmediajs/js-build","config":{"version":{"fly/components/accordion":"1.0","fly/components/alert":"1.0","fly/components/base":"1.0","fly/components/carousel":"1.0","fly/components/dropdown":"1.0","fly/components/fixate":"1.0","fly/components/form-validate":"1.0","fly/components/image-gallery":"1.0","fly/components/iframe-messenger":"1.0","fly/components/load-more":"1.0","fly/components/load-more-article":"1.0","fly/components/load-more-scroll":"1.0","fly/components/loading":"1.0","fly/components/modal":"1.0","fly/components/modal-iframe":"1.0","fly/components/network-bar":"1.0","fly/components/poll":"1.0","fly/components/search-player":"1.0","fly/components/social-button":"1.0","fly/components/social-counts":"1.0","fly/components/social-links":"1.0","fly/components/tabs":"1.0","fly/components/video":"1.0","fly/libs/easy-xdm":"2.4.17.1","fly/libs/jquery.cookie":"1.2","fly/libs/jquery.throttle-debounce":"1.1","fly/libs/jquery.widget":"1.9.2","fly/libs/omniture.s-code":"1.0","fly/utils/jquery-mobile-init":"1.0","fly/libs/jquery.mobile":"1.3.2","fly/libs/backbone":"1.0.0","fly/libs/underscore":"1.5.1","fly/libs/jquery.easing":"1.3","fly/managers/ad":"2.0","fly/managers/components":"1.0","fly/managers/cookie":"1.0","fly/managers/debug":"1.0","fly/managers/geo":"1.0","fly/managers/gpt":"4.3","fly/managers/history":"2.0","fly/managers/madison":"1.0","fly/managers/social-authentication":"1.0","fly/utils/data-prefix":"1.0","fly/utils/data-selector":"1.0","fly/utils/function-natives":"1.0","fly/utils/guid":"1.0","fly/utils/log":"1.0","fly/utils/object-helper":"1.0","fly/utils/string-helper":"1.0","fly/utils/string-vars":"1.0","fly/utils/url-helper":"1.0","libs/jshashtable":"2.1","libs/select2":"3.5.1","libs/jsonp":"2.4.0","libs/jquery/mobile":"1.4.5","libs/modernizr.custom":"2.6.2","libs/velocity":"1.2.2","libs/dataTables":"1.10.6","libs/dataTables.fixedColumns":"3.0.4","libs/dataTables.fixedHeader":"2.1.2","libs/dateformat":"1.0.3","libs/waypoints/infinite":"3.1.1","libs/waypoints/inview":"3.1.1","libs/waypoints/jquery.waypoints":"3.1.1","libs/waypoints/sticky":"3.1.1","libs/jquery/dotdotdot":"1.6.1","libs/jquery/flexslider":"2.1","libs/jquery/lazyload":"1.9.3","libs/jquery/maskedinput":"1.3.1","libs/jquery/marquee":"1.3.1","libs/jquery/numberformatter":"1.2.3","libs/jquery/placeholder":"0.2.4","libs/jquery/scrollbar":"0.1.6","libs/jquery/tablesorter":"2.0.5","libs/jquery/touchswipe":"1.6.18","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.core":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.draggable":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.mouse":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.position":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.slider":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.sortable":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.touch-punch":"0.2.3","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.autocomplete":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.accordion":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.tabs":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.menu":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.dialog":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.resizable":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.button":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.tooltip":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.effects":"1.11.4","libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.datepicker":"1.11.4"}},"shim":{"liveconnection/managers/connection":{"deps":["liveconnection/libs/sockjs-0.3.4"]},"liveconnection/libs/sockjs-0.3.4":{"exports":"SockJS"},"libs/setValueFromArray":{"exports":"set"},"libs/getValueFromArray":{"exports":"get"},"fly/libs/jquery.mobile-1.3.2":["version!fly/utils/jquery-mobile-init"],"libs/backbone.marionette":{"deps":["jquery","version!fly/libs/underscore","version!fly/libs/backbone"],"exports":"Marionette"},"fly/libs/underscore-1.5.1":{"exports":"_"},"fly/libs/backbone-1.0.0":{"deps":["version!fly/libs/underscore","jquery"],"exports":"Backbone"},"libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.tabs-1.11.4":["jquery","version!libs/jquery/ui/jquery.ui.core","version!fly/libs/jquery.widget"],"libs/jquery/flexslider-2.1":["jquery"],"libs/dataTables.fixedColumns-3.0.4":["jquery","version!libs/dataTables"],"libs/dataTables.fixedHeader-2.1.2":["jquery","version!libs/dataTables"],"https://sports.cbsimg.net/js/CBSi/app/VideoPlayer/AdobePass-min.js":["https://sports.cbsimg.net/js/CBSi/util/Utils-min.js"]},"map":{"*":{"adobe-pass":"https://sports.cbsimg.net/js/CBSi/app/VideoPlayer/AdobePass-min.js","facebook":"https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/sdk.js","facebook-debug":"https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/all/debug.js","google":"https://apis.google.com/js/plusone.js","google-platform":"https://apis.google.com/js/client:platform.js","google-csa":"https://www.google.com/adsense/search/async-ads.js","google-javascript-api":"https://www.google.com/jsapi","google-client-api":"https://apis.google.com/js/api:client.js","gpt":"https://securepubads.g.doubleclick.net/tag/js/gpt.js","hlsjs":"https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/hls.js/1.0.7/hls.js","recaptcha":"https://www.google.com/recaptcha/api.js?onload=loadRecaptcha&render=explicit","recaptcha_ajax":"https://www.google.com/recaptcha/api/js/recaptcha_ajax.js","supreme-golf":"https://sgapps-staging.supremegolf.com/search/assets/js/bundle.js","taboola":"https://cdn.taboola.com/libtrc/cbsinteractive-cbssports/loader.js","twitter":"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js","video-avia":"https://vidtech.cbsinteractive.com/avia-js/2.4.0/player/avia.min.js","video-avia-ui":"https://vidtech.cbsinteractive.com/avia-js/2.4.0/plugins/ui/avia.ui.min.js","video-avia-gam":"https://vidtech.cbsinteractive.com/avia-js/2.4.0/plugins/gam/avia.gam.min.js","video-avia-hls":"https://vidtech.cbsinteractive.com/avia-js/2.4.0/plugins/hls/avia.hls.min.js","video-avia-playlist":"https://vidtech.cbsinteractive.com/avia-js/2.4.0/plugins/playlist/avia.playlist.min.js","video-ima3":"https://imasdk.googleapis.com/js/sdkloader/ima3.js","video-ima3-dai":"https://imasdk.googleapis.com/js/sdkloader/ima3_dai.js","video-utils":"https://sports.cbsimg.net/js/CBSi/util/Utils-min.js","video-vast-tracking":"https://vidtech.cbsinteractive.com/sb55/vast-js/vtg-vast-client.js"}},"waitSeconds":300});

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here