NFL Week 3 picks, odds, best bet: Eagles pass on Carson Wentz, Chiefs make short work of Colts

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Week 2 of the 2022 NFL season is completely ridiculous, and when weeks are completely ridiculous, that means gamblers are missing consistent success. For example, taking the Las Vegas Raiders or Baltimore Ravens first-half moneyline might be a better bet than the full-time moneyline. The 1 p.m. comeback was incredible as the Cleveland Browns made 37-year-old Joe Flacco look elite, and Tua Tagovailoa threw four touchdown passes in the fourth quarter.

One thing I’ve learned is staying away from the Detroit Lions because they’re responsible for two of my top five picks. Compared to week 2, I’m more optimistic about this week, so let’s see what I think.

As always, thanks to the CBS Sports Research team for making me smarter.

All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

First five picks ATS record: 3-7
Overall ATS record: 13-19
Straight-up record: 14-17-1

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Recent Contradictions:

Philadelphia Eagles -6.5

Carson Wentz gets a chance to get revenge against the team that made him the No. 1 pick. 2 overall in 2016, the Eagles visit the Commanders. Unfortunately for Washington, things are going well for its division rival. Philly went from 2-0 down to an impressive 24-7 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. Jalen Hurts scored three total touchdowns, while Darius Slay locked down Justin Jefferson — and intercepted Kirk Cousins ​​twice when the star wideout was targeted.

Notably, Wentz is the third notable former Eagles quarterback in Washington, joining Sonny Jurgensen and Donovan McNabb, and both Jurgensen and McNabb won their first rematch against the Eagles. However, Jurgensen and McNabb are better players than Wentz. That’s not to say Wentz hasn’t been committed to Washington so far, but the Eagles are a better team overall than the Chiefs. Philly’s ground game will carry the Eagles to victory, as Washington is allowing an average of 7.5 yards per carry this season, worst in the NFL.

When I looked at this line a few days ago, it was PHI -4.5. I’m still well under 7.

Selection: Eagles -6.5
Projected Score: Eagles 35-28

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Recent Contradictions:

Kansas City Chiefs -5.5

I never want to get ahead of myself, and I never guarantee anything but tax and death, but this line confuses me. I understand that the Chiefs came out incredibly slow against the Los Angeles Chargers last week, but aren’t they still basically a top five team in everyone’s power rankings?

The Colts, on the other hand, are screeching — I’ll be there too. You open the year tied with the Houston Texans, then get swept by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Alas. The sharps are clear on the Colts at this point, as the line fell from KC -6.5 to KC -5.5 on Wednesday. No problem, I’ll take the extra point.

Patrick Mahomes has thrown seven touchdowns and zero interceptions this season. Remember, it’s still September, and the Chiefs QB is 13-2 on the month, with 48 passing touchdowns thrown compared to three interceptions. The Chiefs have won nine straight regular season games since extended rest, the longest active streak in the NFL.

Selection: Principals -5.5
Projected Score: Chiefs 30-20

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Recent Contradictions:

Baltimore Ravens -3

Few are afraid to put points with the Ravens, one, it’s the Patriots home opener, two, the Patriots defense is solid, and three, the Ravens fumbled in Week 2 — blowing a 21-point fourth-quarter lead. at home. At the same time, we can’t help but notice that while Baltimore is averaging 31 points per game, New England’s offense is averaging just 12 points over two games. I am paying at Lamar Jackson and Co. Using last week’s losses as fuel, it moves forward.

All trends say the Patriots should win this game outright, but I’m sweeping them all. This Patriots team is nothing like the Patriots teams of old, and they will need to match one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL Sunday.

Selection: Crows -3
Projected Score: Ravens 26-20

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Recent Contradictions:

Las Vegas Raiders -2

As CBS Sports.com’s resident Titans writer, I can tell you that Tennessee is in deep trouble. Ryan Tannehill hasn’t been great, Derrick Henry hasn’t looked like himself, offensive coordinator/play caller Todd Downing is quickly becoming the most disliked man in Music City, left tackle Taylor Levin could be lost for the year, the run defense has taken a big step back from last season, and the cornerback game is people. It’s worse than it feels and the pass-rushers are on fire. Should I just stand there?

The Raiders are also 0-2, but I think it’s pretty easy to guess what their game plan will be on Sunday. On offense, attack young cornerbacks with Davante Adams and Darren Waller. On defense, use Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones to wreak havoc at backup left tackle and rookie right tackle. In case you forgot, Jones had five sacks and two forced fumbles the last time he played for the Titans.

Selection: Riders -2
Projected Score: Raiders 27-20

Sunday, 8:20pm ET (NBC)

Recent Contradictions:

San Francisco 49ers -1.5

The Broncos aren’t my pick to win the stacked AFC West this season, but I sure feel like I overrated them. First-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett made the wrong call with the game in Week 1, and he struggled again in Week 2 on fourth-down kicks/field goals. There was no reason the Broncos were close to the Texans. , and when they finally did win, fans didn’t feel like they had won Empower Field at Mile High. Denver is 0 of 6 in the red zone this year, leads the league in penalties, is winless against the spread and now faces the toughest team it has ever played.

As for the 49ers, can you believe their luck? You almost can’t make this story up. They tried to move on from Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason, failed to do so, and are now thanking their lucky stars after Trey Lance’s injury. No one is celebrating Lance breaking his ankle, but Jimmy G is going to take this opportunity. I still don’t think Garoppolo is one of the elite signal callers in the NFL, but he’s consistent enough. The 49ers are 31-14 with Garoppolo and 9-29 among all starting quarterbacks since 2017. This line was picked a few days ago, but is now moving in the 49ers’ direction — and for good reason, in my opinion.

Selection: 49ers -1.5
Projected Score: 49ers 24-21

Other week 3 exams

Browns 23-20 over Steelers (+4)
Bengals (-6) beat Jets 28-21
Vikings 33-30 over Lions (+6)
Texans (+2.5) 20-17 over Bears
Saints (-2.5) 24-20 over Panthers
Bills 30-27 Dolphins (+5.5)
Chargers (-7) 28-20 over Jaguars
Packers (PICK) 21-20 over Buccaneers
Falcons (+1) 29-27 over Seahawks
Rams 27-24 over Cardinals (+3.5)
Cowboys (+1) 23-20 over Giants

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