NFL Week 3 odds, picks: Rams’ pressure vs. Kyler Murray sparked the win, and the Packers’ ground game was too much for the Bucs

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After Week 2, we have a little more clarity on which teams are the best this season and which teams might struggle. Here are the moves on my radar and next week 3 matchups and how they could affect the outcome of these games.

Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
TV: Fox Streaming: FuboTV

Special game , Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams

Defensive schemes favor Stafford, not Murray

As recent history has favored the Bills against the Dolphins, the Rams had Kyler Murray’s number. Murray’s marks against the Rams (1-6 SU, 1-5-1 ATS, 7 TD, 8 Int) are his worst against any team (minimum 3 games). The only time Murray beat the Rams, DeAndre Hopkins was also in the lineup.

Murray vs. Rams pressure

Kyler’s struggles against the Rams begin with pressure. His worst rate against any team is 36% of his pressures for failure. He was absolutely on fire against them in the playoffs last year, going 4 of 12 for 22 yards and an interception in a hurry. Los Angeles’ pass rush isn’t nearly as potent without Von Miller, but it’s enough to put an end to the magical act Murray pulled last week.

Stafford vs. Cardinals blitz

The key to beating Matthew Stafford? Don’t BLITZ. He has an NFL-best 139.8 passer rating against five-plus pass rushers since being traded to the Rams with 18 touchdown passes and one pick. In a Rams uniform, Stafford is 9-0 at least 25% of the time and 8-6 in all other games.

I’d like to give Arizona the benefit of the doubt and say, “Maybe they won’t explode,” but I can’t do that after 1 week. Patrick Mahomes is the second-best QB against extra rushers since 2021, behind Stafford. He’s a poor blitz beater but the Cardinals threw five touchdown passes at the highest rate (54%) of his career. Arizona has blitzed at the highest rate (48%) in the NFL this year, and will likely continue to do so against Stafford.

Selection: Rams

Sunday, 1 pm ET
TV: Fox Streaming: FuboTV

Special game , Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles OL vs. Generals D.L

The Eagles’ ground game is in midseason form, ranking second in the league in rushing yards per game this season. They will face a Chiefs defense that has allowed 7.5 yards per rush this season. How bad is that? It was the most by any team in Week 2 since 1951, when the Bears, Giants and Eagles were all bad. 1951! The Eagles will need to push the offensive line commanders around, as they did last year when they swept Washington by 178 yards per game. With Jalen Hurts’ early season breakout, that’s enough for me to pick Philadelphia over a reunion with Carson Wentz.

Selection: Eagles

Green Bay Packers (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
TV: Fox Streaming: FuboTV

Special game , Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers

Packers run game vs. Buccaneers run game

The Buccaneers may be without their top three wide receivers (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones) and the Packers are still looking to make their stride without Davante Adams. I’m looking at the floor because Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers’ air raids have the potential to land without great targets against top secondaries.

Aaron Jones and A.J. Rodgers said the goal is for Dillon to touch every 15 games, which could be inconsistent with the Buccaneers. They lead the NFL in defensive efficiency, but their run defense is still vulnerable. They rank 22nd in run stop success rate, an ESPN stat of how often they break blocks on run plays. They are 19th in yards per rush allowed this season, 15th last year and first in 2020 when they win the Super Bowl. Green Bay’s run defense has also struggled, but the Packers’ ground game ranks third in yards per yard. Rushing compared to 26th for the bus.

Selection: Bakers

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