NFL Week 3 betting tips

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Week 3 features nine home underdogs, making 23 home underdogs in three weeks. It was the highest in three weeks since the 1970 merger. They have gone 8-5-1 ATS so far this season.

Entering week 3 the biggest trend so far has been related to totals. The unders have hit at a 68% clip this season, the lowest percentage over two weeks since 1996. The prime-time unders are 6-1 this season and have hit at a 58% rate over the past three seasons.

With Tom Brady and the Buccaneers hosting Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay might have the most interesting total. Totals are now in the low 40s. In the four previous Rodgers-Brady meetings, the total averaged 55.5 and at least 53 each time. That’s the highest average total of any head-to-head quarterback matchup over the last 35 seasons (minimum three games).

A couple of lines are lined up this week. The Carolina Panthers have lost nine games in a row, both outright and ATS. It is one of the longest such streaks in the Super Bowl era (previously done twice). Last week, they lost to the New York Giants as favorites after being underdogs for most of the week. The Giants have now trailed in 16 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.


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Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) at Cleveland Browns, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET


  • The Steelers are 44-24-3 against the spread underdogs under coach Mike Tomlin (37-34 outright). Since Tomlin’s first season in 2007, the Steelers have been the only quarterback over .500. Since 2018, Pittsburgh is 20-7-2 ATS underdogs.

  • Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in its last six games. Overall, the Browns went 7-15 ATS under coach Kevin Stefanski.

  • Cleveland is 1-11 ATS in division games and 6-19 ATS in conference games under Stefanski.

  • Over the last 10 seasons, the unders are 48-28-1 in Steelers road games.

  • It’s the first time Pittsburgh has trailed in three games since 1992 (started 3-0).

  • The Unders are 94-67-3 in prime-time games over the previous four seasons (.584), including 6-1 this season.

  • Teams favored between points 4-7 are 2-11 ATS this season and 36-58 ATS (.383) since the start of last season. Home favorite is 4-7, 16-37 ATS over last two seasons (.302).


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New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Carolina has lost nine straight games against the spread, the second-longest streak of any team in the past 20 seasons behind the 2005-06 Oakland Raiders.

  • The Panthers lost all nine of those games. Only two teams in the Super Bowl era have lost 10 straight games in both straight and ATS — the 1981 Baltimore Colts and the 2005-06 Oakland Raiders.

  • Since 2016, New Orleans is 35-15 ATS (.700) on the road, the best mark in the NFL over that span. 19-9 ATS in that span.

  • Since 2015, New Orleans is 29-15 ATS against division opponents. Since 2016, Carolina is 12-24 ATS against division opponents.

  • Since 2010, teams that are 0-2 are 46-29-1 ATS against teams that previously won a game.


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Houston Texans (-2.5) at Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Chicago was a 3-0 ATS home favorite last season. Justin Fields was the second hitter in his 13th NFL start (1-0 ATS).

  • Houston is 2-0 ATS this season and 5-1 ATS in its last six games.

  • It was Davis Mills’ 14th career hit. He was at least six points short in each of his first 13 starts until this week.


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Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Indianapolis went 1-5 ATS under coach Frank Reich.

  • Indianapolis is 0-4 ATS in its last four games. QB Matt Ryan is 0-5-1 ATS in his last six starts.

  • Kansas City is 47-25-1 ATS on the road under coach Andy Reid (.653), the best mark in the NFL over that span.


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Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Since Josh Allen’s second season (2019), Buffalo is 17-7-1 ATS on the road, the second-best mark in the NFL behind Arizona.

  • Allen is 19-6-2 ATS in his last 27 starts, including 5-0-1 in his last six starts.

  • Dua Tagovailoa is 14-8-1 ATS in her career, including 9-3 ATS at home.

  • Buffalo is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight division games. Miami is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 division games.

  • The current total for Buffalo-Miami meetings is 53.5 over the previous 35 seasons (previous highs: 48.5 in 2021 and 1992).


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Detroit Lions (-6) at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Dan Campbell is 11-3 ATS at least four points as Lions coach.

  • Detroit is 7-1 ATS in its last eight conference games.

  • Minnesota has been the spread favorite the last four times (1-0 this season).

  • Over the past 10 seasons, Minnesota is a league-best 41-21-2 ATS after a loss (.661).

  • Teams favored between points 4-7 are 2-11 ATS this season and 36-58 ATS (.383) since the start of last season. Home favorite is 4-7, 16-37 ATS over last two seasons (.302).

  • The current total of 53.5 is the most for any Detroit game in the last 35 seasons, having happened four times before, most recently in 2020.


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Baltimore Ravens (-3) at New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Bill Belichick is 15-5 ATS and 12-8 overall with New England as a home underdog. His 15-5 ATS mark is the best among 46 coaches to be the home underdog at least 20 times in the Super Bowl era, including the playoffs. Overall, Belichick is 51-27-1 ATS with New England.

  • Belichick is 6-1 ATS against Ravens coach John Harbaugh in the regular season (0-4 ATS in the playoffs).

  • Lamar Jackson is 16-7-2 ATS in his career.

  • Since 2019, Baltimore is 11-2-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3.


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Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at New York Jets, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Cincinnati is 0-2 or just the third team in the last 25 seasons to score at least four points (first in 2019 at Washington Miami). The previous two straight were 2-0 and 1-1 ATS.

  • The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog (0-6 outright). The last time they beat Cincinnati outright as a home underdog was in Week 8 of last season, an 11.5-point loss.

  • Under coach Jack Taylor is 17-8 in road games.

  • The Jets were 1-13 and 2-12 ATS in their previous 14 September games, though they won last week.

  • Since 2010, teams that are 0-2 are 46-29-1 ATS against teams that previously won a game.


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Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Titans coach Mike Vrabel is 8-4 ATS and one at home, and he was 3-0 last season.

  • Since 2017, Las Vegas is a 1-8-1 ATS road favorite and 1-5 since moving to Las Vegas.

  • Las Vegas went 1-6 ATS since the start of last season.


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Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET


  • Carson Wentz is 5-1 ATS in his last six games.

  • Since 2016, Washington is 6-12 ATS in division games.


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Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) at Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET


  • Los Angeles has covered nine straight meets (since 2010).

  • Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games.

  • Los Angeles’ previous eight games in September were all gone.

  • QB Justin Herbert is a 3-1 ATS home favorite of at least seven points.

  • QB Trevor Lawrence is 2-7 ATS on the road.

  • Teams favored between points 4-7 are 2-11 ATS this season and 36-58 ATS (.383) since the start of last season. Home favorite is 4-7, 16-37 ATS over last two seasons (.302).


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Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday 4:25 PM ET


  • Rams coach Sean McVay is 10-1 ATS including playoffs against Arizona, and 6-1 ATS against Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury.

  • Arizona is 19-9-1 ATS under Kingsbury and 7-1 ATS since the start of last season.

  • Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.


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Atlanta Falcons (-2) at Seattle Seahawks, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET


  • Atlanta is 5-0 and ATS in road games under coach Arthur Smith.

  • Seahawks coach Pete Carroll is 15-4 ATS in last 19 games without Russell Wilson.

  • QB Geno Smith is 9-1 ATS in his last 10 starts and 22-14 ATS in his career.


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Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET


  • Aaron Rodgers had the second-lowest over/under of 41 in a start prior to December. His only lower total came in his first career start in 2008. This is the lowest September/October total for a Tom Brady start since 2010. In the four previous meetings between Brady and Rodgers, the average was 53 each time. 55.5, which is the highest average in a head-to-head quarterback matchup over the last 35 seasons.

  • 3-1 ATS vs. Brady Rodgers, covering last three meetings (including playoffs). Anders is 3-1 in their matchups.

  • Green Bay is 33-18 ATS (.647) under coach Matt LaFleur, the best mark in the NFL during that span. Brady is 188-124-6 ATS (.602) in his career, the second-best mark in the Super Bowl era among 89 quarterbacks who have made 100 starts.

  • Green Bay is 9-3 ATS under LaFleur, an underdog, including 4-1 ATS since the start of last season.

  • Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games.

  • Tampa Bay has spanned four straight games between +3 and -3.

  • Tampa Bay is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in that role.


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San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET


  • Lookhead Line Denver -3. It opened at 2.5 after Sunday’s games (when Trey Lance was injured), and now San Francisco is favored.

  • QB Jimmy Garoppolo is a 13-16-2 ATS favorite and a 13-3 ATS underdog.

  • Niners coach Kyle Shanahan is a 15-24-2 ATS favorite.

  • Denver has trailed by one at home, covering three straight. Since the 1970 merger, Denver has been a home underdog 55-32-2 ATS. QB Russell Wilson is a 7-3 ATS underdog at home.

  • Shanahan is 13-7-1 ATS in conference games.

  • The Unders are 94-67-3 in prime-time games over the past four seasons (.584), including 6-1 this season. Over the past three seasons, home underdogs are 27-19 ATS in prime-time games.


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Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at New York Giants, Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET


  • Last season, Dallas was 8-1 ATS on the road, 6-0 ATS in divisional games and 4-0 ATS with extra rest.

  • Dallas is 8-2 ATS against New York since 2017.

  • Cooper Rush is 2-0 in his career as a starter, both trailing by at least four points.

  • New York is 0-3 ATS favorite since 2020 and 4-10-1 ATS favorite in their last 15 games. Last week, after being favored most of the week against Carolina, the Giants were shut out as an underdog.

  • The Unders are 94-67-3 in prime-time games over the past four seasons (.584), including 6-1 this season.

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