Browns vs. Steelers Predictions: Odds, Totals, Player Props, Picks, Trends, Stream ‘Thursday Night Football’

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The Browns and Steelers begin Week 3 when these AFC North rivals come to Thursday Night Football. Both teams are coming off losses in Week 2 that are each winnable in their own right. Pittsburgh fumbled a punt in the second half, allowing New England to pull away with the win. Meanwhile, the Browns are reeling from a complete collapse against the Jets, where they gave up a 30-17 lead less than two minutes into the game. Needless to say, both of these clubs will be happy going into Week 3 and leaving last week in the dust as soon as possible.

Here, we will specifically take a look at the different racing angles that this game offers. Along with the spread and total, we’ll hand out several player props and our picks for how we see this prime-time matchup unfolding.

All NFL Odds Via Caesars Sportsbook.

How to see

Date: Thursday, Sept. 22 | Time: 8:15 pm ET
Location: FirstEnergy Stadium (Cleveland, Ohio)
Stream:
Amazon Prime Video
Follow: CBS Sports App
Contradictions: Browns -4.5, O/U 38.5

Tax movement

Special game , Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

In the spring, when the line was first released, the Browns were a 3.5-point favorite, and that held throughout the summer, but dropped to -3 following Week 1. After Week 2, this changed drastically and the Browns are now considered a 4.5-point favorite, and even rose as high as a 5-point favorite at times throughout the week leading up to this Thursday matchup.

selection, Browns -4.5 (+100), Cleveland is expected to have star pass rusher Myles Garrett for the game, which is bad news for Mitch Trubisky as he tries to hang on to his starting job in Pittsburgh. The stage is set for the Browns to take an early lead at home on a short week against a traveling Steelers team and then lean heavily on the run to get the win. Right tackle Jack Conklin is also expected to make his season debut after missing the first two weeks, adding to the potential for success on the field. Pittsburgh is currently 18th in the NFL in DVOA against the run, which plays to the Browns’ strength offensively. If they wake up and force the Steelers into a more pass-heavy game script, they could let Garrett play against Trubisky.

Main trend: Browns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.

Over/under total

The total opened the week prior at 40.5 and has pulled quickly throughout the week after briefly rising to 41 on Monday. It has fallen to 37.5 and is currently at 38.5 ahead of this segment.

selection, Total 1H points under 19 (-110). If forced to take the total for this game, I’d be leaning lower, but I’d like to go with the under 19 1H points here. The Browns’ preference is to control the clock and shake up the ground game, which plays to our advantage and the Steelers’ reluctance to throw the ball down the field with Trubisky. The game may force them to make those attempts in the second half, so zeroing in on the first two quarters is a good way to avoid that situation.

Main trend: The under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these teams in Cleveland.

Props to Mitch Trubisky

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  • Passing Touchdowns: 0.5 (Over -274, Under +190)
  • Passing Yards: 199.5 (+102 over, 139 under)
  • Rushing yards: 12.5 (+100 over, -137 under)
  • Crossing attempts: 31.5 (Over -131, Under -104)
  • Longest pass completion: 31.5 (Over -123, Under -111)
  • completions: 20.5 (+118 over, -163 under)
  • Interruptions: 0.5 (Over -129, Under -106)

0.5 interceptions over -129 is good value here for Trubisky, who tossed a pick last week against New England. He’ll face a pass rush headlined by DPOY candidate Myles Garrett, which will rush many of his throws and step on dangerous windows. I also believe the Browns are set up to take an early lead in this divisional matchup where Trubisky forces Pittsburgh to force the ball up the field, which Trubisky has not been comfortable with so far. The Steelers. With rookie Kenny Pickett breathing down his neck, Trubisky might force some of them.

In a similar vein, Trubisky’s 31.5 pass attempts over the deadlock is also a stretch, especially if we believe they’ll be behind and forced to throw the ball more. He’s surpassed that mark in both of his games this season, including last week’s game against the Patriots, when he scored just 31 points.

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  • Passing Touchdowns: 1.5 (+190, under 274)
  • Passing Yards: 187.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
  • Rushing yards: 12.5 (Over -111, Under -123)
  • Crossing attempts: 31.5 (Over -131, Under -104)
  • Longest pass completion: 31.5 (+100 over, 137 under)
  • completions: 16.5 (Over -139, Under +102)
  • Interruptions: 0.5 (+108, under 148)

Brissett has 10 rushing attempts through the first two games of the season and has surpassed his 12.5-yard rushing prop once, which came on a 43-yard rushing performance against New York last week. If he’s averaging a few carries per game, going over this 12.5-yard total isn’t a bad roll of the dice. The top play under 31.5 pass attempts, however, is -104. Cleveland’s offense revolves around running the football, and they should be able to do that against Pittsburgh’s run defense. If they get an early lead, they can lean on that run to slide to victory without putting the ball in Presett’s hands too much.

Player props to consider

Kareem Hunt Total Rush Attempts: Over 9.5 (-157). Hunt has seen double-digit carries in both games this season and has been the 1B in this offense for Nick Chubb, so he’ll still see plenty of work in the backfield against a mediocre Steelers run defense. Since joining the Browns in 2019, Hunt has played in 34 regular season games. He has double-digit carries in 20 games. If you go back to 2020, he rushed over 9.5 times 77% of the time.

Nick Chubb Total Rushing Yards: Over 84.5 (-129), as we noted with Hunt, the ground game is the focal point of Cleveland’s offense and Sub is the main attraction. He has surpassed this total in each of his previous two games and has surpassed it in half of the games he has played in 2021. The Steelers defense is coming off a short week and faced a Patriots backfield that averaged 4.9 yards per carry on their backs.

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